What The Long AwaitedCHL/NCAA Rule Change Means
FINALLY. Starting in the 2024-25 College Hockey season, CHL players will be eligible to commit and play in the NCAA. Prior to this, the NCAA viewed CHL players as professional athletes due to the small pay that they were receiving from the league. However, due to the lack of pay, age of the players, and the potential for the growth of College Hockey, the tables have officially turned - putting to rest what was one of the most controversial topics in the hockey world.
College Hockey Will Blow Up
My favorite part, my most unbiased part, the most exciting part of this entire rule change: College Hockey will blow UP.
Pathway to Pro
I will repeat myself a multitude of times throughout this article, and the biggest thing you’ll see me saying over and over again, is that the NCAA is now the premiere pathway to pro hockey. Since the mass majority of Canadian talent historically has come through the CHL, the best Canadian players will be able to play junior hockey without worrying about going through the dilemma of whether or not they should play in the States. In short, it gives way more flexibility, as these players can now figure what’s best for them as they mature into adults - not right away at 16-years-old. On top of this, recency bias will also be the extra push that gets a lot of these young players to migrate over the border and play in the NCAA. Over the past few seasons, more and more of the best prospects in the world have chosen to play in College rather than juniors. Some of those big names include Gabe Perrault, Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, William Wallinder, Matthew Wood and most notably, Canadian-born Macklin Celebrini who was the first overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. Players take notice of those things, and if one really good player decides to go that route, more and more players will follow the same trend. This naturally increases the overall level of competition around the NCAA, which will then become a major factor in player’s decisions as well. Think of it like a surge, and this new rule change is just what the NCAA needs in order to start that.
Biggest Attractions
There’s a lot of obvious reasons why playing College Hockey will automatically start to attract more and more players, such as: being able to pursue an education, more non-hockey opportunities, (possibly) better coaching, and better competition. However, I feel like the biggest reason that College Hockey will increase drastically in popularity is none of these. When you zoom out, disregard hockey, and look at the bigger picture, College is usually one of the biggest steps into becoming a man. You learn how to carry yourself, stay healthy, loyal and committed to not only your teammates but to yourself. College Hockey provides so much outside of hockey, while still prioritizing the sport as one of your main focuses.
Impact on the Hockey World
So, what does this mean for the hockey world? For starters, American College Hockey is now the number one development path in the world for young and upcoming players. The average age of College Hockey players will drastically decrease, as we will start seeing more, and more “one-and-done’s” and less, and less players who’ll decide to play into their upperclassmen years due to being drafted, and the eagerness that brings to make the jump to pro hockey. A decrease in overall popularity in Canadian Junior-B, and American Junior hockey is also well on the horizon. Before this rule change, the best players in the world, regardless of nationality, with the intent and/or commitment to play NCAA hockey, would usually play in one of the BCHL, AJHL, OJHL, NAHL or on most occasions, the USHL. Now, those leagues have returned as an afterthought to the elite players that will now rush over the border for better competition, and better hockey-related opportunities.
‘“Mixed emotions,” uncertainty about “unintended consequences,” and plenty of questions.
Those were the most common refrains from the nearly 20 CHL general managers and coaches The Athletic spoke to about the change.’ Is what Scott Wheeler wrote in his coverage of the news (here).
This leads me into my next point.
The USA vs. Canada Debate is Officially Over
The ground that was made up by USA Hockey on Hockey Canada when it came to overall player development, and performance on the international stage, has become extremely disregarded. I won’t say that it’s completely gone, because it isn’t. However, for USA Hockey to continue to keep pace with Hockey Canada on both the amateur and professional stages will now take a lot more than the USHL being the main way to the NCAA. The leverage that USA Hockey had in developing their best players in College Hockey is now gone. Less and less American-born players will now be able to play in the NCAA, simply because more players are now eligible to play. This means the players that would end up benefiting from playing all four years, and slowly making their way up in the lineup while progressing as overall hockey players, will be almost scarce. Sure, we’ll get occasional “Joseph Dunlap’s” and “Cole Knuble’s” - players that were passed on in the draft and have now become premier a UDFA - but aside from the occasion, it won’t be as common as it used to be, ditching what was one of the NCAA’s best qualities as a development path.
‘In recent years, the CHL has lost top players such as Adam Fantilli, Owen Power, Michael Hage and just this season Adam Valentini to the USHL’s Chicago Steel, as well as others like Sacha Boisvert even earlier to prep schools in the U.S. “We think it’s a good thing,” said one OHL general manager. “Players from USHL, BCHL likely track back into the CHL.”’ Was a perfect quote from Scott Wheeler (here) that sums up the mindset of this whole ordeal.
In conclusion, we’ll see better hockey, but in return, will get to see less of the underdog stories, 5th-year seniors, 5’8” freshmen and flat out hockey players, that made the NCAA so special.
Biggest Potential Recruitment Battles
Easily the thing that I’m most excited to see, is how recruitment, and the overall recruitment process will change. Especially for smaller schools.
Here are some players that I think could be atop the list for a multitude of high end programs, plus, why I think so.
#1. Kristian Epperson, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Nationality: USA
Age: 18
2023-24 Stats: 7 goals, 20 assists, 18 games, 27 points
Top Potential Schools: University of Michigan, Michigan State, University of Wisconsin, University of Minnesota
Epperson is easily going to be one of the most sought after recruits in the CHL this upcoming offseason, especially if Saginaw can repeat the same success they had last season (which they are looking well capable of doing). The reason for this is that Epperson is a USNTDP alum, and before deciding to play juniors was formerly committed to play at the University of Michigan. His play style is also appealing to schools like Michigan, who have high octane offensive systems in place based around quick puck movement, and supremely talented forwards. If Epperson did decide to pursue another shot at playing in the NCAA, he’d be a big time recruit not only for Michigan schools, but for really the entire Big Ten and elsewhere. As a Wisconsin-born, and Shattuck St. Mary grad, there’s no doubt the offers will be filling up his mailbox in due time.
#2. Gavin McKenna, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Nationality: Canada
Age: 16
2023-24 Stats: 11 goals, 28 assists, 20 games, 39 points
Top Potential Schools: Boston College, Boston University, University of North Dakota, University of Minnesota, University of Michigan
Listen, I know. A Canadian phenom like McKenna has absolutely no reason at all to come over to the States at this time in his career, simply because he has no real motive to. He’s already proven pretty much everything he’s could by his age, plus more. So, why bother putting him on the list? It’s simple: why the heck not? Hockey East is a conference that has started to separate itself as the best conference in College Hockey over the past couple of seasons, especially with teams like Boston College and Boston University who have been on a tear over the past five seasons - both on the ice and in the recruiting process. If I were making a pitch to McKenna, I would include these simple things: We want you, because with you no one is stopping us from raising a banner. We want you, because with you better players will come here, which in turn will give both you and the organization more support. Finally, we have the right tools and can provide you with the resources that’ll make you a better hockey player coming out of this, then you ever thought you would become going into this. The best schools in College Hockey can provide those three major things, especially Boston College and Boston University. Two schools that have built championship-caliber teams while recruiting better than almost any other schools internationally.
#3. Henry Brzustewicz, London Knights (OHL)
Nationality: USA
Age: 17
2023-24 Stats:
Top Potential Schools: University of Michigan, Michigan State, University of Notre Dame, Boston University, Ohio State
On the outside looking in, the brother of Calgary Flames prospect Hunter Brzustewicz, Henry, plays both a similar style of game to his brother and has also taken a similar route with his hockey career as his brother. Henry, standing at a very solid 6’1” 194 pounds, is a physical defenseman that is great at using his heavy shot from the point every chance he can get. However, where Hunter and Henry’s games both dispute, is when it comes down to the details in both the offensive and defensive zone. Opposed to his older brother, Henry enjoys jumping into the play regularly, trying his best to initiate offense almost every chance he can get. His shortcomings fall within his own blue-line. Despite this, Brzustewciz’s upside can be viewed as a high end middle pair guy. But, what really makes Brzustewicz stand out as a top-end recruit out of the CHL? His age. At only 17-years-old, Brzustewicz is in his draft season already putting up great box score statistics for the London Knights. Unlike many CHL players, Brzustewicz is on a fantastic timeline when it comes to age and potentially playing at the College level. Next season, he’d be entering the NCAA at 18-years-old, a great age to start playing at, and even better age for a player like Brzustewicz who’ll most likely need multiple years of development in the NCAA before making the jump to pro. He has a lot of intangibles that could make him a very, very valuable addition to any College or NHL team, but what will determine his outlook will be the growth in his game over the next couple of seasons. When taking into consideration his background, (and as an outsider looking in), I feel like the NCAA is easily the next best option for Brzustewicz - an American, who spent his entire youth playing Tier 1 hockey in Michigan - moving forward.
#4. Lukas Fischer, Sarnia Sting (OHL)
Nationality: USA
Age: 18
2023-24 Stats:
Top Potential Schools: University of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, University of Massachusetts, St. Cloud State
Fischer was one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 NHL Draft, and when you turn on the tape it’s easy to see why. He’ll never pop off the screen to you when it comes to his offensive skill, nor will he ever go out of his way to try and manage the game with his physicality. What Fischer offers instead, is refined puck moving from the backend that creates a multiplicity of high danger scoring chances, smooth skating, and a tall 6-foot 3-inch frame that if filled out could play a huge role in his game. Not to mention, he was named captain of the Sarnia Sting heading into this season, showing his overall leadership and character. Like almost all of the players that I’ve mentioned before him, Fischer does come from an American background (Czech-American to be exact), and spent his youth hockey career playing in Michigan for Compuware’s ‘AAA’ organization. The Pontiac, MI native offers a style of play that is often very enticing for blue collar schools, as they are looking for hard working, selfless players that are willing to do what it takes to win games, and at the same time provide a lot of potential if developed properly. Fischer is left-handed, a position that will be of need for multiple Big Ten schools after this season. When it comes to Fischer’s overall future, I don’t think he’ll exactly reach the level of play I think he can. Nonetheless, I think that if he did decide to go the College route, it would be extremely beneficial for both his game, and career as a whole.
#5. Oasiz Wiesblatt, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Nationality: Canada
Age: 20
2023-24 Stats: 10 goals, 16 assists, 19 games, 26 points
Top Potential Schools: Minnesota State, Arizona State, Augustana College, Bemidji State, University of Nebraska-Omaha, University of Alaska-Fairbanks
To me, it’s a no-brainer to put a player like Wiesblatt on this list. At 20-years-old, and standing at a mere 5’9” 180 pounds, Wiesblatt has been both the perfect, yet most unorthodox henchmen to Gavin McKenna’s stardom. Last season, Wiesblatt had his breakout campaign with 91 points in 63 games. Showcasing his quick feet, and hockey IQ, but more importantly his tenacious forecheck, and underdog mentality. Growing up alongside his three older brothers, (Ocean, Orca, Ozzy, Ozzy whom was drafted to the San Jose Sharks in 2020) Oasiz was able to develop an unmatched competitive edge which has been one of the focal points of his game, as well as a major reason as to why he’s experiencing so much success this season. As an undersized winger, who can’t skate as fast in a straight as many Colleges would prefer, Oasiz makes for the perfect prospect to seep through the cracks and fall into the lap of a school that desperately needs him. Oasiz provides a spark off the bench in all aspects of the game with his compete level, and that’s something that many high end schools lack when compared to other ones. Overlooked programs that lie within the NCHC and CCHA would be perfect landing spots for Wiesblatt.
Conclusion
All in all, I’m excited. Really excited. College Hockey really will blow up over the next few seasons, and the level of competition is going to shoot through the roof. Was this a shock? Absolutely not. We all expected a change sometime in the near future, but to have it this quick I feel like it's just an added bonus from a fan’s perspective. Now, to say that everyone benefited from this change would be a massive overstatement. Certainly there will be programs that will most likely dematerialize, and eventually drop to lower levels of College Hockey because they’re simply not bringing in enough money. However, that will simply open up more and more room for big time Pacific coast market schools like Oregon, Washington, and possibly even some East coast schools like North Carolina, and Liberty to make the jump to Division 1. Anyways, I’m getting ahead of myself. But, I’ll leave you guys off with a quote from the AP’s (here) article about the rule change that I feel sums this entire situation up the best.
‘“Everyone expected the rule to change. Now we will have to adapt,” Central Collegiate Hockey Association Commissioner Don Lucia wrote in a text to The Associated Press. “There may be a few issues as we transition. But hopefully, in time, it will prove to be a positive change for all involved.”’
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